Howdy! The focus of this blog is on timely issues about which there’s some controversy about what to do. My goal isn’t to argue one side or another, but rather to help people use evidence to generate some useful insight. For example, there was a time not so long ago in which there was disagreement about whether to allow people who’d been working in areas with ebola outbreaks back into the US, and if so, whether and…
Comments closedI want to offer up some straightforward data on how Americans experience interactions with law enforcement and the degree to which that experience varies by race. My goal here was to try to put my hands on the best data I could find, and to look at those data while trying to impart as little spin as possible. You’ll find a list of the sources I used at the end of this post. Key Measure…
Comments closedTwo Psychological Illusions are Fueling Our Differences On the evening of September 11, 2001, hours after the terrorist attacks that left nearly 3,000 people dead, Republican and Democratic senators stood on the steps of the Capitol to participate together in a moment of silence. When that moment of silence came to a close, the senators — who had engaged in plenty of partisan politics days before — spontaneously began to sing “God Bless America.” On…
Comments closedThe tricky balance between saving lives and protecting the economy Faced with the possibility of their healthcare systems being overwhelmed with Covid-19 patients, most developed countries implemented some form of “locking down.” Citizens were told to stay home except in the case of emergencies or to buy food or medicine. Restaurants and bars were closed. The use of face masks was sometimes deemed mandatory. Schools had to learn how to operate online. Sweden took a…
Comments closedIt’s been a while since the Covid-19 epidemic has turned our world upside down. As a result, there’s a ton of interest in getting us all back to work as soon as possible. And that’s totally understandable: a frozen economy isn’t good for anyone. One interesting proposal is the use of “immunity passports.” These passports would certify that the bearer is immune to infection with the Covid-19 (C19) virus. The idea is to identify people…
Comments closedMy wife and I have been locked down on our little farm in rural Italy for a few weeks now. We’re only allowed off the property to go to the grocery store, the pharmacy or the post office. And when we go, we are required to bring along a signed form declaring our reason for leaving. But we have it easy — living on a farm means we can let our dogs run around, and…
Comments closedFriends in the US have asked me whether the policies being implemented there to address the Covid-19 epidemic make sense. Specifically, they’re asking for the straight scoop on whether we really need to tank the economy – maybe to the point of economic depression – to deal with this epidemic. What follows are the main, factual aspects of the situation and policy response that I’ve been able to glean and seem believable to me. (Note:…
One CommentJudge Brent Kavanaugh’s nomination raised lots of questions about how to deal with uncertainty in the appointment approval process for the Supreme Court. Are you an “innocent until proven guilty or a “above reproach” type? Maybe somewhere in between? Here’s an interactive tool to help you inform your position based on how you feel about the relative value of the relevant outcomes. Feedback appreciated!
Comments closedWe will never know for sure whether Judge Brett Kavanaugh sexually assaulted Dr. Christine Blasey Ford. But there is a way that can help us all think a bit more rationally when it comes to deciding how to proceed, and to surface the sources of our disagreements. Let’s with a couple of things on which we’d probably all agree: if we knew for certain that Kavanaugh sexually assaulted Ford (or anyone else), his appointment to…
Comments closedThe only thing standing between us and the end of this seemingly endless presidential campaign is a handful of presidential debates. Since the 1988 race, debates between presidential candidates have been organized by the Commission on Presidential Debates (CPD). The CPD was formed to ensure “that presidential debates between the leading candidates be made a permanent part of the electoral process.” The CPD employs two hurdles for participation: candidates must be on the ballots of…
Comments closedBetween the medical academic community crying foul over the med-tech startup’s lack of transparency and the SEC’s concerns about whether Theranos’ leadership misled investors, a more fundamental problem with the blood testing company has been overlooked. At least until now. Katherine Hobson at fivethirtyeight.com notes that there’s a flaw at the very core of the business, and it’s got nothing to do with the technology or claims made to investors. It’s that more sensitive tests and…
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